journal of sustainable studies joss
Analysis of crude oil price fluctuations and their impact on the sustainability of public debt in Iraq for the period (2000-2019)
Hussein Al-Fatlawy
Abdul Azim Al Shukri
abduladheem.alshukri@qu.edu.iq
Al-Qadisiyah University / College of Administration and Economics / Department of Economics
Abstract:
The Iraqi economy is characterized as a one-sided economy; It mainly depends on the oil resource to finance the budget and the economy. As a result, the economies of the oil-producing countries, especially Iraq, slipped into the orbit of the oil markets and their fluctuations, and the infiltration of global economic crises and fluctuations into them through the oil supplier channel. The sensitivity of the economy to these changes is subject to these changes in all sectors that contribute to the largest part of the gross domestic product, and accordingly this research sought to analyze and diagnose the effects that oil price fluctuations may have on public debt sustainability indicators that cannot be separated from the characteristics of the rentier oil economies. Therefore, the research aimed to reveal the nature and direction of the relationship between crude oil prices and indicators of the sustainability of public debt in Iraq, by interpreting the reality of the performance of the two variables and the relationship between them in those countries. As well as building the standard model in which the nature and direction of the relationship between crude oil prices, the deficit and surplus/GDP ratio, crude oil prices, and the public debt/GDP ratio for the sample countries are tested. In order to achieve the goals sought by the research and to test its hypothesis, this research has relied on the inductive approach by following the two descriptive and analytical methods in order to describe the phenomenon and analyze it and clarify the effects resulting from fluctuations in global crude oil prices and their impact on the indicators of the sustainability of public debt in financing the budget for the Iraqi economy and the quantitative method (Standard) to show the impact of measuring fluctuations in global crude oil prices on the indicators of the sustainability of public debt in Iraq. One of the most important findings of the research is that fluctuations in global crude oil prices affect, through the public budget and public debt channels, the indicators of the sustainability of public debt in Iraq, the research sample. The Iraqi economy has been used to analyze the relationship between global crude oil prices and indicators of the sustainability of public debt in Iraq and the extent of intertwining and correlation between crude oil prices and the deficit or surplus to GDP and public debt to GDP in Iraq.
Keywords: (analysis, price fluctuations, crude oil, impact, public debt sustainability).
14-تحليل تقلبات اسعار النفط الخام واثرها على استدامة الدين العام في العراق (2)